Outskirts Press, INC.

How McCain Could Have Actually Won the 2008 Election

Had John McCain chosen Condoleezza Rice as his Vice Presidential running mate (instead of Sarah Palin), the Republicans could have actually won the 2008 Presidential Election; even in the aftermath of the Economic Meltdown (based on an objective analysis of Presidential Exit Poll Data). This assertion is based on three highly plausible suppositions that would have emerged, demographically, had Rice been chosen as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate, that could have decisively altered the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election of Barack Obama.





Had Rice been on the Republican ticket, her presence would have cut across and appealed to several seemingly disparate, but crucial, demographic constituencies that no other Republican possibly could in 2008 or, for that matter, in 2012 either. Moreover, this book will explore the daunting (and maybe insurmountable) outlook confronting the Republican Party in 2012 and beyond.









1) Author Gary Patterson was interviewed on the Mitch Albom Show. Enthusiastically recommending his book, guest host John McCulloch stated:





"I find it fascinating as I read it more and more. It's just a very, very interesting book."



"Believe me, there's more in (the book) including a really interesting look at the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s. It's very poignant."





(Also, you can link to the mp3 recording of the entire interview)







2) BILL O‘REILLY, of the O'REILLY FACTOR, highlighted the blatant contradiction (discussed previously in this book - page 89) of President Obama fervently insisting that captured, accused terrorists be tried in civil U.S. courts and, thus, be accorded the same constitutional rights of an American citizen. Yet apparently President Obama has no compunction about killing presumed Al Qaeda enemy combatants - through Drone attacks:



"And, by the way, terrorist thugs, they have no rights. None. If they did, why is President Obama shooting drones at them without a trial? Think about it. The president is dropping bombs on suspected terrorists. No trial. No interrogation. Just death.



And then he turns around and gives Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - who admits planning the murder of 3,000 people - lawyers and a civil trial. Does that make any sense to you?"

Talking Points - Thursday, January 10, 2010.

SAMPLE TEXT


WHAT OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS KNEW

THAT McCAIN DIDN’T?


In February 2008, when Condoleezza Rice was being talked about as a possible Vice Presidential running mate for John McCain, noted ultra liberal Katrina Vanden Heuval‘s magazine, Nation, warned that “Democrats who think it’s going to be a cakewalk into the White House next November had best remember one name: Condoleezza Rice”… who would cause Democrats “indescribable angst” if she were on the Republican ticket. Moreover, “Rice’s presence on the ticket deprives the Democrats of the we-are-more-diverse-than-thou argument.” And, warning of Rice’s debating prowess, the reader is cautioned “take Rice lightly at your own peril.”



Similarly, in April 2008, Senior CNN Political Analyst Gloria Borger noted that “Rice would instantly add star power to the Republican Presidential ticket.”



Indeed, that same month, a New York State Marist Poll, hypothetically, pit a McCain-Rice Republican Presidential ticket against Obama and New York’s own Senator, Hillary Clinton. The poll was noteworthy, in that the McCain-Rice Republican ticket actually beat an Obama-Clinton Democrat ticket, in New York, 49-44% as well as a Clinton-Obama ticket, 49-46%. By contrast, however, in a separate poll, McCain, running alone, beat Obama by only 2%; 48-46% (i.e. 3% less than with Rice as his Vice Presidential running mate). Versus Hillary alone, McCain lost 46-48% (or 5% less than had Rice been on the Republican ticket).



Given the overwhelming Democrat edge that has existed in the state of New York for decades (and, for that matter, throughout the Northeastern U.S.), for a McCain-Rice ticket to even have been competitive six months before the General Election was quite astounding. Moreover, a 3% - 5% bump attributable to any one Vice Presidential candidate being on the ticket is, historically, unprecedented.



____________________





2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION



PROBLEM DEFINED:



MSNBC (7/25/2008) reported that a Quinnipiac Poll revealed a 94 to 1 preference for Obama over McCain among Black Voters.



Even President Bush got 11% of the Black Vote in 2004; in a race that was so close that it came down to a change of only 62,000 votes in Ohio (or the equivalent of only approximately 10% of the total Black Vote there). Similarly, in 2000, any less Black Voter support, and the Republicans would have lost Florida; and that election as well. Consequently, given his 1% support among Black Americans, McCain could ill-afford to start out “in the hole;” 10% behind, even Bush, in Black Voter support.



How could McCain have not realize the game-ending potential here right out of the gate? And, had there have been no viable alternative to counter and cut into Obama‘s Net Black Vote, McCain could not be faulted. But, Condoleezza Rice, a Black Woman of accomplishment, a Conservative on National Security, but considered a Moderate on social issues, was apparently rejected early on with no reason given.



McCain would inevitably counter that the issue of choosing Rice was mute because Rice had previously stated that she did not wish to be considered. However, if called upon by her Party, it’s hard to believe that someone who has future Presidential ambitions (like Rice herself) would not “reluctantly” have agreed to accept the vice presidential nomination “for the good of the party.” Moreover, given that (as they did) the Democrats still won, Rice would have, by default, been considered the clear front runner in 2012 based on her demonstrated loyalty of “coming to the party’s need” in 2008. The question is: Did McCain really want Rice and, if he says he did, how hard did he try?



Moreover, had McCain, at the Convention, selected the triumvirate of Rice as Vice-President and Mitt Romney as McCain’s Economic Guru, Colin Powell’s twin criticisms of McCain and, in effect, his justification for supporting Obama, would never have materialized in the first place. In particular, had Romney been on the team coming out of the Convention ten days earlier, like a matador in the ring, McCain could have wave his cape and simply said “Ole,” deferring to (or, at least, availing himself of the opportunity to consult with) Romney’s economic expertise. Ultimately, Romney’s absence (by McCain’s conscious choice), combined with the negative impact of the Palin selection, proved to be mortally devastating to McCain’s campaign.





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2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

OPTIMAL 2012 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL TICKET



Conservative Fox News Contributor and author Bernard Goldberg noted that, when asked who he wanted to see become President, the late William F. Buckley , the renowned father of the modern American Conservative Movement, replied; “the most viable Conservative.” The operative word being “viable” meaning to Buckley, not necessarily the most Conservative; but, rather, the most Conservative, elect-able Republican candidate.



Further, Condoleezza Rice would appear to meet Rush Limbaugh’s criteria for the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee (FoxNews - On The Record 7/24/2009): specifically, the Republican candidate who 1) can win (i.e. p. 1-2 - The April 2008 New York Marist Poll); 2) can excite a crowd (i.e. p. 120-121 - Conservative Americans For Tax Reform) and 3) the Democrats “tell us who they’re the most afraid of” (i.e. p. 1 - Ultra Liberal Katrina Vanden Heuval’s Nation Magazine).





CHAPTER XII



CONDOLEEZZA RICE’S “PRIMARY” EDGE



The decided advantage that Condoleezza Rice takes into the Republican primaries is not necessarily one of superior ability or popularity within the National Republican Party itself. In fact, given her “nuanced position” on abortion, for example, the consensus opinion among Republicans, is that, she is without equal on national security and related issues. However, the party elders are less enthusiastic and maybe concerned with her perceived moderate position on social issues; which distinguishes her, in a negative sense, with the morality issue-driven Conservatives of the Republican Party.



Political Spectrum Edge



But, in the Republican Primaries, here’s how that can be a good thing: As the only candidate (along with long shot Tim Pawlenty) who would be considered a moderate among a prospective field of seven Republican Presidential hopefuls; that would leave the other Conservative candidates to carve up the hardcore Conservative Republican vote among themselves. And, even if Conservatives comprise a two-thirds or even 70% majority of the Republican party; that leaves 30 - 35%, who are Moderate and/or Conservatives for whom a Republican win is the paramount issue (i.e. The Greater Good), for Rice to form a winning plurality in state primaries.



Indeed, an example of this occurred in 2008, with John McCain, alone, on the moderate to left-wing of the Republican political spectrum. The Conservative alternative left Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee as the only serious contenders on the right, carving up the Conservative and Evangelical Vote between themselves, leaving McCain with a winning plurality, as occurred in Florida. Indeed, later that week, Romney dropped out, effectively, conceding the nomination to McCain.





Key Edge for Rice: Open Primaries



Given that several states are “Open Primaries,” wherein Independents and, even Democrats, can vote in a Republican primary, Rice should clearly benefit from their participation (expanding her universe of potential Primary Voter support); in addition to those true Republicans supporting her candidacy. Many other actual Obama Supporters, especially Black and Women Voters, will potentially cross over, voting for Rice out of genuine pride. Regardless, in open primary states, Rice will have the advantage in that her “universe” of total potential Primary Voters will be larger than her Conservative Republican candidate competitors.



As a consequence, from the outset, Rice, alone, would have an apparent clear advantage in at least seven states, if (as in 2008) they continued to hold open primaries, which allows the Voter a) to choose any candidate or b) requires the Voter to merely declare a particular party affiliation and then vote in that party’s primary. Specifically, the Deep South states include Alabama (45 Delegates), where Rice lived during her childhood years, Mississippi (36) and Georgia (72). Moreover, along with the Southern states of South Carolina (24) and Virginia (60), all five Southern states have relatively large Black Voting populations. Finally, the moderate-to-liberal leaning states of Wisconsin (37) and Vermont (17) presumably would favor Rice as well. The Republican Delegates in these seven "open primary" states, alone, total 291.







Additionally, the non-open Primary Election states of North Carolina (69), Maryland (37) and the District of Columbia (16) (totaling an additional 122 delegates) also have relatively large Black Voting populations of 23% , 25% and 56% respectively.



“Large State” Advantage:

California and New York



Given her ties to California since the early 1980s and currently residing there, her level of academic achievement earned there and serving as Provost at Stanford University, Rice should have a “home field advantage,” at least, analogous to Mitt Romney’s in Michigan. Further, Rice has a perceived advantage in the state of New York based singularly (but significantly), on the results of the New York State Marist poll, released in April 2008, that, hypothetically, favored a McCain-Rice ticket against Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton.



The combined primary delegate vote of both California (170) and New York (87) is 257. Therefore, Rice’s delegate count, based on the above projections, would be 670 (291, 122 and 257). And, although 670 is only 58% of the 1,151 needed for nomination, it would serve as a strong base, (“out of the gate“) from which to start; before even considering any of the remaining competitive primaries. Moreover, by comparison to 2008, McCain only had 660 delegates when the Republican nomination was, effectively, conceded to him by Mitt Romney.